Muhlenberg College/Morning Call
Pennsylvania Presidential Election Survey
OCTOBER 2024
PDF: PA Presidential Election Survey - October 2024
Key Findings:
- In the final Muhlenberg College/Morning Call poll of the 2024 election season, Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are in a very tight race with Harris holding a narrow 49% to 47% lead among likely voters in the Keystone State.
- A historically large divide in electoral preferences between those with and without 4-year college degrees is among the key survey findings with Harris holding a very large lead (60% to 35%) among those with a 4-year degree and Trump maintaining an advantage (54% to 42%) among those without a 4-year degree.
- The results of the survey once again indicate a gender divide within the Pennsylvania electorate with Harris holding a 53% to 43% lead among women and Trump holding a 52% to 43% advantage among men.
- In the Keystone State former President Trump holds a 54% to 43% lead among white voters while Harris holds a 66% to 27% lead among voters of color.
- In Pennsylvania’s U.S. Senate race incumbent Senator Bob Casey Jr. holds a 3 point lead over Dave McCormick, his Republican challenger.
- Likely voters within the Commonwealth remain evenly divided in terms of their party preferences within their congressional districts, with 47% intending to vote for the Republican candidate in the upcoming election and 46% planning to vote for the Democratic nominee in their U.S. House race.
- Pennsylvania’s likely voters have varied views on the performance of the President and Governor in the waning days of the election, with President Biden receiving a 42% approval rating compared to Governor Shapiro’s 59% approval mark
- Voting fraud (28%), voter suppression (20%) and foreign interference in the election (18%) are considered the biggest threats to Pennsylvania having a safe, secure and accurate election in 2024.
- Just under half (48%) of likely voters in the Commonwealth agree (either “strongly” or “somewhat”) with the statement “I anticipate that acts of political violence will occur on Election Day.”
- About one third (32%) of Pennsylvania’s likely voters indicate that politics and current events are a “major” source of threat in their lives.
Methodological Statement:
The following report contains the results of a telephone survey of (460) likely voters in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania between October 27 and 30, 2024. Respondents were interviewed in English on both landlines (94) and cell phones (366). With a randomly selected sample of respondents the margin of error for the surveys is +/- 6% at a 95% level of confidence. Margins of error for questions with smaller sample size will be larger. In addition to sampling error, one should consider that question wording and other fielding issues can introduce error or bias into survey results. Interviewing was conducted by Communication Concepts of Easton, Pennsylvania under protocols established by the MCIPO. The data has been weighted to gender, age, region, party, race and educational attainment to reflect voter population parameters. The calculation of sampling error takes into account design effects due to the weighting identified above. In order to reach a representative sample of registered voters both land lines and cell phones were called up to 3 times. The sampling frame for the study is from the registered voters files of the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania. To determine likely voters, only voters who have voted in 1 or more of the last 4 general elections (2020-2023), or who is a new registrant since November of 2020 were included in the sampling frame. In addition, only survey respondents from this frame who indicated that they were “definitely” or “very likely” to vote in the November election were included in the sample. Due to rounding the totals provided in the frequency report may not total 100%. The survey instrument (presented in its entirety below) was designed by Dr. Christopher P. Borick and Dr. Lindsay Burt of the MCIPO. The survey was funded exclusively by the Morning Call and the MCIPO. For more detailed information on the methods employed please contact the MCIPO at 484-664-3444 or email Dr. Borick at [email protected]
INSTRUMENT and FREQUENCIES
Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion
October 2024 PA Election Poll
Q1: Thank you. Which of the following categories best describes your current voting status? Are you registered as a ______? (READ LIST)
Democrat ………………………………………… 45%
Republican ………………………………………. 46%
Independent ……………………………………… 9%
Other Party ……..................................................... <1%
Q2: How likely are you to vote in the November 2024 presidential election? Are you definitely going to vote, very likely to vote, not too likely to vote or definitely not voting?
Definitely Voting ………………………………... 92%
Very Likely to Vote ……………………………... 9%
Q3: Now, I would like to ask your overall impression of a few political figures. For each name I read, please tell me if your impression of him or her is favorable or unfavorable. (ROTATE)
First, Kamala Harris:
Favorable ………………………………………… 49%
Unfavorable ……………………………………… 46%
Neutral/Not Sure ………………………………… 5%
Q4: Next, Donald Trump:
Favorable ………………………………………… 42%
Unfavorable………………………………………. 54%
Neutral/Not Sure …………………………………. 4%
|
|
December 2023 |
April 2024 |
September 2024 |
October 2024 |
|
Favorable |
33% |
39% |
45% |
42% |
|
Unfavorable |
56% |
55% |
52% |
54% |
|
Neutral/Not Sure |
11% |
6% |
3% |
4% |
|
Haven’t Heard of Him |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
Q5: Bob Casey Jr.:
Favorable ………………………………………… 40%
Unfavorable ……………………………………… 40%
Neutral/Not Sure ………………………………… 16%
Haven't Heard of Him ……………………………. 4%
|
|
April 2024 |
September 2024 |
October 2024 |
|
Favorable |
39% |
33% |
40% |
|
Unfavorable |
33% |
38% |
40% |
|
Neutral/Not Sure |
20% |
23% |
16% |
|
Haven’t Heard of Him |
8% |
6% |
4% |
Q6: David McCormick:
Favorable ………………………………………… 30%
Unfavorable ……………………………………… 45%
Neutral/Not Sure ………………………………… 20%
Haven't Heard of Him …………………………… 5%
|
|
April 2024 |
September 2024 |
October 2024 |
|
Favorable |
28% |
28% |
30% |
|
Unfavorable |
26% |
38% |
45% |
|
Neutral/Not Sure |
29% |
24% |
20% |
|
Haven’t Heard of Him |
17% |
10% |
5% |
Q7: Next, do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling his job as President?
Approve …………………………………………. 42%
Disapprove ……………………………………… 51%
No opinion (Volunteered) ………………………. 7%
|
|
December 2023 |
April 2024 |
September 2024 |
October 2024 |
|
Approve |
34% |
35% |
36% |
42% |
|
Disapprove |
57% |
61% |
58% |
51% |
|
No Opinion |
9% |
5% |
5% |
7% |
Q8: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Josh Shapiro is handling his job as Governor of Pennsylvania?
Approve ………………………………………….59%
Disapprove ……………………………………… 28%
No opinion (Volunteered) ………………………. 13%
|
|
December 2023 |
April 2024 |
September 2024 |
October 2024 |
|
Approve |
51% |
64% |
59% |
59% |
|
Disapprove |
21% |
19% |
27% |
28% |
|
No Opinion |
28% |
17% |
14% |
13% |
Q9: Now, if the 2024 presidential election was being held today and the race was between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris who would you vote for? (OPTIONS ROTATED)
Trump (Skip to Q 11) ……………………………47%
Harris (Skip to Q11) ……………………………. 49%
Neither/Other (Volunteered) (Skip to Q11) …….. 2%
Not Sure (Volunteered) …………………………. 2%
Q10: Are you leaning more toward voting for Donald Trump or Kamala Harris? (OPTIONS ROTATED) (ASKED ONLY OF THOSE THAT SAID, “NOT SURE” ON Q9) (n = 7)
Trump………………………………………...0%
Harris…………………………………………0%
Neither/Other (Volunteered)………………...11%
Not Sure (Volunteered) ………………..……90%
PRESIDENTIAL RACE WITH LEANERS
TRUMP ………………………………………... 47%
HARRIS ……………………………………….. 49%
NEITHER/OTHER …………………………… 2%
NOT SURE …………………………………….. 2%
|
|
September 2024 |
October 2024 |
|
Trump |
48% |
47% |
|
Harris |
48% |
49% |
|
Neither/Other |
4% |
2% |
|
Not Sure |
1% |
2% |
Q11: Next, if the 2024 United States Senate race in Pennsylvania was being held today and the race was between Bob Casey Jr. the Democrat and David McCormick the Republican, who would you vote for?
Casey …………………………………………….. 48%
McCormick ……………………………………… 45%
Neither/Other (Volunteered) …………. 2%
Not Sure (Volunteered) ………………….. 4%
Q12: Are you leaning more toward voting for Bob Casey Jr. or David McCormick? (OPTIONS ROTATED) (ASKED ONLY OF THOSE THAT SAID, “NOT SURE” ON Q11) (n = 18)
Casey …………………………………………….. 29%
McCormick ……………………………………… 26%
Neither/Other (Volunteered) ………… 10%
Not Sure (Volunteered) …………………. 35%
SENATE RACE WITH LEANERS
CASEY ………………………………………….. 49%
MCCORMICK …………………………………. 46%
NEITHER/OTHER ……………………………3%
NOT SURE ……………………………………… 1%
|
|
April 2024 |
September 2024 |
October 2024 |
|
Casey |
45% |
48% |
49% |
|
McCormick |
41% |
43% |
46% |
|
Neither/Other |
5% |
5% |
3% |
|
Not Sure |
7% |
4% |
1% |
Q13: If the elections for Congress were being held today, which party's candidate would you vote for in your district? The Democratic Party's candidate or the Republican Party's candidate? (OPTIONS ROTATED)
Democrat ………………………………………… 46%
Republican ………………………………………. 47 %
Neither/Other (Volunteered) …………… 1%
Not Sure (Volunteered) …………………… 6%
|
|
December 2023 |
April 2024 |
September 2024 |
October 2024 |
|
Democrat |
42% |
45% |
45% |
46% |
|
Republican |
41% |
44% |
45% |
47% |
|
Neither/Other |
16% |
5% |
3% |
1% |
|
Not Sure |
1% |
7% |
7% |
6% |
How confident are you that, across the country, votes cast in the following methods will be accurately cast and counted in this November’s elections.? First: (ROTATE OPTIONS)
|
Very Confident |
Somewhat Confident |
Not Too Confident |
Not at all Confident |
Not Sure |
|
|
Q14: Paper Ballots |
55% |
23% |
10% |
8% |
5% |
|
Q15: Electronic Voting Systems |
54% |
19% |
10% |
12% |
5% |
|
Q16: Mail ballots |
39% |
18% |
14% |
27% |
3% |
Please indicate if you strongly agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree or strongly disagree with the following statements.
|
|
Strongly Agree |
Somewhat Agree |
Somewhat Disagree |
Strongly Disagree |
Not Sure |
|
Q17: I anticipate that acts of political violence will occur on Election Day |
23% |
26% |
16% |
22% |
14% |
|
Q18: The transfer of power between presidents will be peaceful if Kamala Harris wins the election. |
39% |
21% |
11% |
20% |
9% |
|
Q19: The transfer of power between presidents will be peaceful if Donald Trump wins the election |
39% |
20% |
10% |
20% |
10% |
Q20: Which of the following do you think is the biggest threat to Pennsylvania having a safe, secure and accurate election in 2024? (ROTATE OPTIONS)
Foreign interference in the election ……………… 18%
Voting machines malfunctioning ……………….... 6%
Voter fraud …………………………………..........…….. 28%
The use of mail ballots …………………….....……… 11%
Suppression of individuals from voting ………. 20%
Other factor (Volunteered) ………………………...... 8%
Not Sure (Volunteered) ………………………......….. 9%
Q21: In general, do you feel that drilling for natural gas in Pennsylvania will provide more benefits or more problems in the FUTURE for the citizens of Pennsylvania?
More Benefits ……………………………………. 61%
More Problems …………………………………... 23%
About Equal (Volunteered) ……………………7%
Not Sure (Volunteered) …………………………10%
Q22: Are politics and current events a major source of stress, a minor source of stress, or not a source of stress for you?
Major Source …………………………………….. 32%
Minor Source …………………………………….. 43%
Not a Source ……………………………………… 24%
Not Sure (Volunteered) ………………………. 2%
Are politics and current events a major source of stress, a minor source of stress, or not a source of stress for you?
|
|
Spring 2024* |
October 2024 |
|
Major Source |
43% |
32% |
|
Minor Source |
38% |
43% |
|
Not a Source |
19% |
24% |
|
Not Sure (Vol) |
0% |
2% |
|
*Spring 2024 data comes from survey of the general public for the 2024 PA Health Survey. |
||
Q23: Finally, I have a few questions about yourself. Which of the following categories best describes your racial identity? Are you (READ LIST)?
White/Caucasian ………………………………… 75%
Black/African-American ……………………… 10%
Hispanic/Latino ………………………………….. 7%
Asian ……………………………………………....... 3%
Native American ………………………………… <1%
Mixed race ………………………………………..... 3%
Other ……………………………………………......…2%
Not Sure (Volunteered) ………………………<1%
Q24: Which of the following categories best describes your religious affiliation? Are you (READ LIST)?
Catholic ……………………………………………...31%
Protestant …………………………………………. 30%
Jewish ……………………………………………..... 3%
Muslim …………………………………………….... 1%
Hindu …………………………………………….. ...<1%
Other Religion (Including agnostic) …… 24%
Atheist ……………………………………………..... 10%
Not Sure (Volunteered) …………………………2%
Q25: What is your highest level of education? (READ LIST)
Less than High School …………………………… 2%
High School Graduate …………………………… 29%
Some college or technical school ……………31%
College graduate (4 yr only) ………………… 23%
Graduate or professional degree …………… 15%
Not sure (Volunteered) ………………………….. <1%
Q26: In the 2020 Presidential election did you vote for:
Donald Trump ……………………………………….............… 45%
Joe Biden …………………………………………..……............. 48%
Another Candidate ……………………………………............. 1%
Or did you not vote in the 2016 presidential election … 6%
Not Sure (Volunteered) ………………………………............... 1%
Q27: Which of the following categories best describes your family income? Is it (READ LIST)?
Under $20,000 ……………………………………. 10%
$20,000-$40,000 …………………………………. 15%
$40,000-$60,000 …………………………………. 21%
$60,000-$80,000 …………………………………..13%
$80,000-$100,000 …………………………………11%
Over $100,000 …………………………. 28%
98. Not Sure (Volunteered) ………………………2%
Q28: In which of the following age categories does your current age fall. READ LIST _______
18-29 …………………………………………….. 15%
30-49 …………………………………………….. 27%
50-65 …………………………………………….. 29%
Over 65 …………………………………………… 30%
Q29: Finally, to which gender identity do you most identify? (READ LIST)
Male ……………………………………………… 49%
Female …………………………………………… 50%
Another category besides Male or Female ………. 1%
Selected Crosstabs
Trump vs. Harris
(Including Leaners)
|
|
Trump |
Harris |
Neither/Other |
Not Sure |
|
Overall |
47% |
49% |
2% |
2% |
|
Male |
52% |
43% |
2% |
2% |
|
Female |
43% |
53% |
1% |
1% |
|
White |
54% |
43% |
2% |
2% |
|
Person of Color |
27% |
66% |
3% |
2% |
|
No 4 Year Degree |
54% |
42% |
1% |
2% |
|
4 Year Degree |
35% |
60% |
2% |
1% |
|
18-29 |
40% |
60% |
0% |
0% |
|
30-49 |
41% |
54% |
3% |
1% |
|
50-65 |
54% |
40% |
2% |
3% |
|
Over 65 |
49% |
47% |
2% |
2% |
|
Biden 2020 |
5% |
90% |
2% |
1% |
|
Trump 2020 |
91% |
5% |
1% |
2% |
|
Democrat |
3% |
95% |
0% |
2% |
|
Republican |
89% |
7% |
2% |
1% |
|
Independent |
50% |
38% |
8% |
3% |
|
“Definitely Voting” |
48% |
50% |
1% |
1% |
|
“Very Likely to Vote” |
41% |
39% |
10% |
10% |
|
Catholic |
50% |
46% |
1% |
1% |
|
Protestant |
58% |
36% |
2% |
3% |
|
Non-Christian/No Religion |
37% |
59% |
2% |
1% |
Casey vs. McCormick
(Including Leaners)
|
|
Casey |
McCormick |
Neither/Other |
Not Sure |
|
Overall |
49% |
46% |
3% |
1% |
|
Male |
44% |
52% |
2% |
1% |
|
Female |
52% |
41% |
4% |
2% |
|
White |
44% |
52% |
3% |
2% |
|
Person of Color |
66% |
31% |
3% |
0% |
|
No 4 Year Degree |
43% |
53% |
2% |
2% |
|
4 Year Degree |
59% |
35% |
4% |
1% |
|
18-29 |
53% |
39% |
3% |
5% |
|
30-49 |
55% |
38% |
4% |
2% |
|
50-65 |
39% |
59% |
2% |
0% |
|
Over 65 |
52% |
45% |
2% |
1% |
|
Biden 2020 |
88% |
7% |
3% |
1% |
|
Trump 2020 |
7% |
88% |
3% |
1% |
|
Democrat |
93% |
4% |
2% |
1% |
|
Republican |
9% |
86% |
3% |
1% |
|
Independent |
39% |
51% |
5% |
2% |
|
“Definitely Voting” |
50% |
46% |
2% |
1% |
|
“Very Likely to Vote” |
41% |
44% |
10% |
5% |
|
Catholic |
46% |
46% |
5% |
2% |
|
Protestant |
37% |
60% |
2% |
2% |
|
Non-Christian/No Religion |
60% |
38% |
1% |
1% |
Congress: Democrat vs. Republican
|
|
Democrat |
Republican |
Neither/Other |
Not Sure |
|
Overall |
46% |
47% |
1% |
6% |
|
Male |
38% |
53% |
2% |
7% |
|
Female |
53% |
41% |
1% |
5% |
|
White |
40% |
52% |
2% |
7% |
|
Person of Color |
64% |
33% |
0% |
4% |
|
No 4 Year Degree |
38% |
53% |
1% |
7% |
|
4 Year Degree |
58% |
36% |
1% |
5% |
|
18-29 |
57% |
39% |
0% |
5% |
|
30-49 |
55% |
36% |
3% |
7% |
|
50-65 |
36% |
59% |
2% |
3% |
|
Over 65 |
41% |
49% |
1% |
10% |
|
Biden 2020 |
86% |
6% |
1% |
6% |
|
Trump 2020 |
3% |
90% |
1% |
5% |
|
Democrat |
92% |
4% |
0% |
3% |
|
Republican |
4% |
89% |
1% |
6% |
|
Independent |
30% |
43% |
8% |
20% |
|
“Definitely Voting” |
47% |
46% |
1% |
6% |
|
“Very Likely to Vote” |
31% |
51% |
8% |
10% |
|
Catholic |
44% |
49% |
1% |
6% |
|
Protestant |
32% |
60% |
2% |
7% |
|
Non-Christian/No Religion |
57% |
35% |
2% |
7% |
Confidence in mail ballots being accurately cast and counted
|
|
Very Confident |
Somewhat Confident |
Not very Confident |
Not Confident at All |
Not Sure |
|
Overall |
39% |
18% |
14% |
27% |
3% |
|
Male |
33% |
19% |
14% |
30% |
4% |
|
Female |
44% |
17% |
13% |
23% |
3% |
|
White |
36% |
16% |
15% |
30% |
3% |
|
Person of Color |
46% |
23% |
10% |
18% |
4% |
|
No 4 Year Degree |
33% |
16% |
18% |
30% |
4% |
|
4 Year Degree |
48% |
21% |
8% |
21% |
2% |
|
18-29 |
37% |
16% |
15% |
28% |
3% |
|
30-49 |
42% |
17% |
11% |
26% |
3% |
|
50-65 |
31% |
18% |
18% |
31% |
2% |
|
Over 65 |
43% |
19% |
10% |
22% |
5% |
|
Biden 2020 |
67% |
17% |
8% |
6% |
2% |
|
Trump 2020 |
9% |
16% |
19% |
52% |
4% |
|
Democrat |
65% |
19% |
9% |
4% |
3% |
|
Republican |
13% |
17% |
19% |
48% |
4% |
|
Independent |
39% |
20% |
7% |
29% |
5% |
|
“Definitely Voting” |
40% |
17% |
13% |
27% |
3% |
|
“Very Likely to Vote” |
26% |
26% |
21% |
26% |
0% |
|
Catholic |
37% |
18% |
17% |
26% |
3% |
|
Protestant |
33% |
16% |
14% |
32% |
5% |
|
Non-Christian/No Religion |
44% |
20% |
11% |
24% |
2% |
